Earthquakes are seemingly random events that are hard to predict with any reasonable accuracy. And yet geologists make very specific long term forecasts that can help to dramatically reduce the number ...

I was preparing for my early morning class back in January 2025 when I received a notice regarding an asteroid called 2024 YR4. It said the probability it could hit Earth was unusually high. As ...

Quick—if you had to guess, what would you think is most likely to end all life on Earth: a meteor strike, climate change or a solar flare? (Choose carefully.) A new statistical method could help ...

Users can use the applet to apply Bayes' theorem to find the probability that a person is actually infected given that the person has tested positive for a disease. The link provides a detailed ...

(The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.) Toshi Hirabayashi, Georgia Institute of Technology (THE CONVERSATION) I was preparing ...